By GARY TILGHMAN
Glasgow Daily Times
GLASGOW —
Consumers may be in the driver’s seat when it comes to higher meat prices. Indications are that retail meat prices may raise to record highs later this year, according to a University of Kentucky agricultural economist, and it all rests on that bedrock of free market economics — supply and demand.
Between 2000 and 2008, the beef, pork and poultry industries were producing record high quantities.
Normally, with supply high, prices would tend to be lower, but demand was also high — driven by a strong economy and positive attitudes toward meat, some of which grew from dietary trends like the Atkins diet.
In that time period, per person consumption of meat was more than 220 pounds annually, according to Dr. Lee Meyer, extension professor in the UK Department of Agricultural Economics.
So, strong demand from consumers forced prices up to record levels.
Fresh beef prices hit $4.11 per pound and pork prices rose to $3.03 per pound in September 2008, and two months later, chicken prices climbed to $1.79 per pound.
“Then two things happened,” Meyer said. “First, as corn was moved into the ethanol fuel channel, prices escalated and livestock producers began losing money because their feed costs were so high.
Initially, more livestock went to market, increasing the supply. Second, the recession hit and meat demand declined because of the weak economy.”
The combination of the two resulted in a price drop last year; beef and pork dropped 8 percent, and chicken prices were down 6 percent.
“But as producers lost money, they reduced production, and so less meat is now on the market,” he said. “In addition, the economy is recovering, and consumers have a much more positive attitude. Tight supplies and stronger demand suggest higher prices.”
Meyer foresees slaughter cattle and hog prices being near record levels this year, but ultimately, consumers hold the key to consumer prices.
If the economy recovers and consumers spend more on meats—especially in restaurants—he sees prices possibly moving to record levels later this year.
“Chicken prices might be an exception. Weaker exports could leave more chicken on the domestic market, and that higher supply could give consumers some relief,” he said.
Timely beef management tips for July
Dr. Roy Burris, UK Beef Specialist has consistently provided great information to beef cow/calf producers in Kentucky.
Below are some management reminders to consider for your herd, this month.
Spring-Calving Cow Herd — Remove bulls from the cow herd by the end of the month and keep them away from the cows.
A short calving season can concentrate labor during the calving season; group calves by age so that it is easier to find a convenient time to vaccinate, castrate, dehorn, etc.; and provide a more uniform group of calves at market time.
Continue to watch for pinkeye and treat if necessary. Minimize problems by clipping pastures, controlling face flies and providing shade.
Fescue pastures tend to go dormant in July and August, so look for alternatives like warm season grasses during this period of time. Try to keep the young calves gaining weight.
Mid-July (when the bulls are being removed) is a good time to deworm cattle, use a product that is effective against inhibited ostertagia.
Reimplant calves which were implanted at birth if the type of implant and amount of time indicate. Calves which haven't been vaccinated for blackleg should be.
Spraying or using a pour-on for flies while cattle are gathered can supplement other fly control methods.
Remember to work cattle early in the morning when it is cool and handle them gently to minimize stress.
Fall-Calving Cow Herd — Fall-calving cows should be dry and pregnant now. Their nutrient needs are minimal and they can be maintained on poor pasture to avoid over fattening.
Keep a good free-choice mineral mix available at all times. You can use a lower phosphorus mineral supplement now, if you want to save a little money.
Replacement heifers should be gaining at an adequate rate to reach their “target” breeding weight.
De-worm cows in mid-July with a product that is effective against inhibited ostertagia.
Get ready for fall calving and plan to have good pasture available at calving and through the breeding season.
General — Plan to attend the KFGC Forage Field Day in Barren County on Sept. 14 and also the UK “Beef Bash 2010” scheduled on Sept. 23 (more details later).
Be sure that clean water is always available, especially in hot weather. Make routine checks of the water supply. Cattle need 13 to 20 gallons of clean water in hot weather.
Maintain a weed control program in permanent pastures and continue to “spot-spray” thistle.
Check pastures for downed wild cherry trees after storms (wilted wild cherry leaves are toxic to cattle).
Have forage analyses conducted on spring-cut hay and have large, round bales covered. Begin planning for the winter feeding program now.
Start soil testing pastures to determine fertilization needs for this fall.
For further details, contact me at the Barren County Extension Office.
Barren County District Board meeting
The Barren County Extension District Board will meet July 16 at noon at the Barren County Extension Office.
