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August 27, 2008

Forecasters pitch winter predictions

By AMBER DILLEY The Glasgow Daily Times Wed Aug 27, 2008, 11:59 AM CDT

GLASGOW — The 2009 edition of the Farmer’s Almanac, which hit the stands Tuesday, is predicting a harsh winter for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

Kentucky falls in the southernmost corner of the almanac’s Great Lakes/Midwest region and according to predictions, will have above-normal snowfall in January and February.

Should we start buying snow shovels?

Not according to some.

Keys Arnold, staff meteorologist at the University of Kentucky, said the Farmers’ Almanac and the National Weather Service (NWS) are calling for opposite weather patterns.

“From what I’ve heard, the almanac is predicting a colder winter, while the National Weather Service is saying a slightly warmer winter,” Arnold said.

He said from what he’s seen, winter will be the same as usual.

“All indications right now show that it will be a near-normal winter,” he said. “The three-month maps that I’ve been looking at show near-normal temperatures this winter.”

Last year, Kentucky experienced a warmer-than-usual January, with temperatures in the 70s, followed by winter storms and tornadoes in February.

Arnold said the Farmers Almanac usually contradicts the NWS.

“A lot of it is based on folklore and old wives’ tales,” Arnold said. “I would lean more toward the weather service. I would take anything in the almanac with a grain of salt.”

Dick Frymire, a self-proclaimed “treeologist” from Irvington, predicts the weather based on his Japanese maple tree. He said he’s expecting the same as the NWS.

“I’m not saying it will be a very hard winter, it will be about average,” Frymire said.

Frymire, who’s been calling the weather for 43 years, said he’s seen an increased interest in weather forecasting.

“We got our first request Jan. 3 this year,” he said. “We’ve already gotten 514 requests. It never ceases to amaze me. Last night, from 6 to 10 p.m., I had 16 calls at the house – people asking if they could get the predictions.”

The Farmers’ Almanac, which is 129 years old, is not the same as the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac, which is 155 years old. The younger Farmers’ Almanac predicts the weather two years in advance, based on the calculations of reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee. He formulates predictions based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tides of the moon.

Winter prediction

Dick Frymire’s predictions for winter 2008-09:

Oct. 8 - light frost

Oct. 16 - big frost

Nov. 6 - flurries

Nov. 15 - flurries

Nov. 20 - tracking snow at 10:28 CDT

Nov. 30 - One inch of snow

Dec. 7 - Two inches of snow

Dec. 23 - One inch of snow

Jan. 7 through Feb. 7: very cold

Jan. 15 - Six inches of snow

Jan. 16 - coldest temperatures at -12 F

Jan. 23 - Five inches of snow

Jan. 29 - Three inches of snow and sleet/hazardous driving conditions

Feb. 2 - One inch of snow

Feb. 22 - Two inches of snow

Feb. 23 - The first robin will appear at 8:27 a.m. CDT

March 8 - One inch of snow

March 20 - One inch of snow

March 29 - 68 degrees F

April 2 - last snow

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