Glasgow Daily Times, Glasgow, KY

Local News

November 14, 2009

Best guesses

Non-conference tests for UK, U of L

GLASGOW — College basketball season: the time of year when we all feel a poetic chill in the air, begin harboring pie-eyed dreams of our favorite team lifting the championship trophy and start to seriously consider beating Dick Vitale with a Louisville Slugger.

And this year, the collective eyes of basketball fans everywhere have fallen on Kentucky and its two high-profile programs’ respective pseudo-Sicilian coaches.

Many are curious to see how John Calipari molds his talented crop of freshmen and fits them into his motion-offense system. Others just want to see how much hatefulness Rick Pitino has to endure each time Louisville has an away game.

But what’s been lost are the games themselves.

Forget grand and (I think) illogical talk of a year-one championship for Calipari, or opining about Pitino’s very public pratfall from grace: how do Kentucky and Louisville matchup against their toughest opponents?

Let’s discuss:

The Wildcats

I’ve made no secret of my hesitance toward Kentucky this year (see three two graphs above). I don’t think they will win a national championship simply because they are an extremely inexperienced team. True, they return legitimate SEC Player of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson: a man who averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds last season, and stands only to get better. And, and, they boast one of the nation’s top recruits (John Wall) and have the luxury of flanking him with several like-talented cohorts.

So, in other words, an SEC title is definitely within their grasp. After all, Tennessee stands as their only kind-of-legitimate competition in the conference. In order to be a force outside of the south, however, they’ll have to win these key games.

North Carolina (Dec. 5, home)

Yes, UNC is essentially the hollowed-out exoskeleton of the team that won last year’s championship. But the Tar Heels do return big men Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis, whose presence could definitely disrupt Wall’s dribble-drive tendencies and perhaps lure Patterson into foul trouble.

Plus, it will be one of the few games where the opposing team possesses a better coach (Roy Williams) than Calipari.

Connecticut (Dec. 9, away)

Right after UNC, Kentucky will have to face UCONN, who also could cause problems for Kentucky down low. The key matchup will be Wall and Connecticut guard Jerome Dyson. If one heats up, the other will surely try to match point for point. Cats fans can only hope Wall gets the upper hand.

Indiana (Dec. 12, away)

Could my feeling that IU is primed to upset Kentucky be rooted in, well, my Indiana roots?

Yes. I’m sure it is. But ...

Kentucky will be fresh off of two top 25 opponents, and will face the prospect of going into a hostile, hostile environment at Assembly Hall.

Is an Indiana upset likely? No. But is it possible? Yes.

The Cardinals

Louisville’s pre-Big-East schedule would make the Harlem Globetrotters jealous. Louisville will go into each game the pre-determined winner. There are two exceptions:

Western Kentucky (Dec. 19, home)

Coming into the Western game, Louisville will have played no truly tough teams. Plus, the game will psychologically mean so much more to the Hilltoppers, who could really boost their postseason resume by not only beating a top 25 team, but doing so on the road.

Interstate rivalries always present a danger to the favorite. And considering the Cardinals’ soft underbelly pre-Dec. 19 schedule, I wouldn’t be surprised if Western wins.

Kentucky (Jan. 2)

This really reeks of doom for Louisville.

I’m not sure if Kentucky is truly heads taller than Louisville in the talent department (I’m the only one), but the much-anticipated new-year matchup presents two big problems for Pitino, et al.

1.) Calipari really wants this game. He’s a man dreaming of a basketball dictatorship - a one-team system. He’s made no secret of this, and even went as far as scheduling a practice at Freedom Hall (it was cancelled).

2.) This is the last game before Louisville starts its unfortunately impossible Big East schedule. It sounds silly to say the Cardinals may look past a game with their biggest - at least in the fans’ minds - rival, but it’s possible. UK fans will also be spitting ample amounts of verbal hatred toward Pitino, who will finally be forced to realize he’s been eclipsed.

Since he left, Kentucky was unable to replace him. They won with Tubby Smith, but that team was essentially built by Pitino. Now, however, a new slick-haired embodiment of charisma is in charge.

Fans of amateur psychology, mark your calenders: this could get depressing.

Jon Webb is the sports editor for the Glasgow Daily Times. He can be reached at jwebb (at) glasgowdailytimes.com

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