The weather was dreary and damp in one of Kentucky’s most beautiful places – the area bounded by a triangle formed from Mount Vernon to London to Somerset and back. The badly needed rain nonetheless diminished the resplendent colors of the trees which, unlike those in Frankfort, were gloriously at full peak.

I went to attend campaign rallies by both candidates for governor, Republican Ernie Fletcher and Democrat Steve Beshear, to visit the people who make the area as welcoming as it is beautiful. I wanted to test the mood of a strong Republican outpost.

It was gray and dreary, just like the weather.

At Fletcher’s rally at Renfro Valley, I met four Republicans from nearby Lincoln County: Clyde Oakes, Vernon Douglas, Paul Cochran and Lincoln County Republican Chairman Jerry Shelton. They’ve never – ever – voted for a Democrat.

“We’re just honest and good people,” Oakes said, grinning, when I asked him why. Then the smile faded from his 74-year-old face. “Besides, they ain’t hired a Republican in Lincoln County since Louie Nunn was governor.” Oakes isn’t optimistic Fletcher will win a second term.

“I tell you, it’s looking bad,” Oakes said. “I’m predicting Beshear the way it looks right now.”

Shelton, the Lincoln County Republican Chairman, said Fletcher can still win. But he pulled me aside, and his frustration showed. He’s disgusted with Democratic Attorney General Greg Stumbo and the press for hounding Fletcher over the Merit System. He’s angry with some in his party who he thinks stabbed Fletcher in the back by encouraging Anne Northup to oppose the governor in the primary. He’s frustrated with Fletcher for how he’s handled the fallout from the investigation, for surrounding himself early in his administration with “those kids” who poorly served their governor when he most needed sound advice. Most of all, he’s frustrated over lost opportunity.

The next day in Laurel County, I spoke with a Republican who knows how politics works in rural Kentucky, especially in rural Republican Kentucky. He’s working hard for Fletcher’s re-election, but he isn’t blind. No one’s talking. No one’s excited. Fletcher will win Laurel County, he said, but probably not by the margin he should enjoy.

He’s already talking about four years from now and thinks Beshear is likely to win only to become another one-term governor. He speaks of how it could’ve been different had Fletcher listened to Republicans who understood what he faced when he went to Frankfort four years ago. He looks down, shaking his head.

Democrats can’t understand. Four years out of power is nothing – nothing – compared with 32. Shelton and Oakes know. Their complaints about Democratic governors’ neglect of their home region are real. They don’t want to go back. That’s why they’re frustrated.

The next night, Beshear came to Somerset for a rally. More than 300 showed up at the Center for Rural Development. Their mood reflected the colors of the trees along Highway 80, not the dreary rain that fell. They sang, cheered Beshear and other Democratic candidates, and some broke into dance when the pop song “Celebrate” rang out from loud speakers as Beshear was introduced.

The contrast here in the Republican heartland was more telling than any poll. Jerry Shelton, Clyde Oakes and the others fear they’re again about to be outside looking in. It could have been different. It SHOULD have been different. No wonder they’re frustrated.

Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com.