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February 10, 2010

Reasons for Reds optimism in ’10

By JON WEBB The Glasgow Daily Times Wed Feb 10, 2010, 11:50 AM CST

GLASGOW — Now that the party in New Orleans is (maybe? Possibly? Probably not, actually) dying down and ESPN’s Chris Berman has (maybe? Possibly? Probably not, actually) been rendered mercifully mute, it’s finally safe to discuss baseball.

And for me baseball season means three things: the Cincinnati Reds, my love for them and the inevitable soul-crushing disappointment they heap upon me.

I predict a Reds World Series title each year and each year since 1990, they thwart me. The disappointment was especially dramatic last season, as Joey Votto suffered a mental breakdown, Edinson Volquez’s elbow exploded and Dusty Baker continued to indifferently chew gum through it all.

Some of those problems - most notably the latter two - linger, but there may just be some sanity behind my annual positivity this season.

This year the Reds may be decent. Perhaps even good.

Take the acquirement of Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman.

Against all logic, Cincinnati snapped Chapman from the r-dropping jaws of the Boston Red Sox and signed him to a $30 million deal. According to scouts quoted in a January ESPN article, Chapman still lacks a consistant breaking ball or changeup, but his fastball exceeded 100 miles-per-hour during the World Baseball Classic and those same scouts toted him as “the real deal.”

Scouts have been wrong before, but even if Chapman fails to develop an off speed repertoire, he could still work wonders as a closer, which is something the Reds may need soon.

Considering the size of Francisco Cordero’s contract and the Reds’ need for some additional offense, Cordero could be moved, allowing Chapman and his dominant fastball to fill the ninth-inning void.

Willy Taveras was void personified in 2009. He hit just .240 in the lead off spot and saw a 43-steal decline from 2008 to 2009.

Cincinnati made a smart move this offseason by trading him to Oakland, who promptly, and tellingly, cut him and the .275 on-base-percentage he came with.

The move will allow the promising, if-unfortunately-named Drew Stubbs to seize centerfield.

In 42 games last season, Stubbs hit eight homeruns, knocked in 17 and stole 10 bases. Extrapolated over an entire season, those numbers roughly pan out to 32 homeruns, 68 RBIs and 40 steals.

Such a line is probably unrealistic for a second year player, but it’s not unrealistic to expect a 20/60/.270 season out of Stubbs. Barring injury or a Taveras-esque embrace of worthlessness, Stubbs could provide the aforementioned pop the offense so desperately needs.

Aside from Stubbs, the Reds’ shocking inability to as-of-yet trade Votto or Brandon Phillips also inspires some confidence for 2010, as does the return of a solid pitching staff consisting of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.

If provided run support, Harang could return to his 2006/7 form and Arroyo, while a terrible singer, is capable of at least double-digit victories.

The real key is Johnny Cueto. He has yet to put together a fully-solid year due to, I suppose, last-season fatigue. He’s had brilliant moments in his career and if he would ... just ... learn ... some ... control he could ascend to Cy Young levels.

But Cueto’s development has been hindered the biggest reason I’m stopping short of my annual World Series prediction. That reason is Dusty Baker.

Let’s be honest: Baker is essentially a lobbyist for the Tommy John industry. He destroyed Mark Prior. He obliterated Kerry Wood and he’s now working his magic on Volquez, who will return in mid-August at the earliest.

The Reds possess some precious pitching commodities in Cueto, Chapman and Homer Bailey. The organization cannot allow Baker to continue overseeing these talents.

All three are in their early twenties, and rest assured, Baker will not hesitate to let them languish for 200-plus innings this year.

He is an elbow and shoulder assassin entering the third year of a stint that’s produced a 152-172 record. If one more pitcher goes down, he has to go.

But if the pitchers survive, I see no reason the Reds shouldn’t bounce back this year.

And, for the first time in years, prove I’m not insane.

Jon Webb is the sports editor for the Glasgow Daily Times. He can be reached at jwebb (at) glasgowdailytimes.com

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