FRANKFORT — It’s an article of faith among Kentucky Republicans that 38 or so counties determine winners in their primaries. They lie primarily in the Fifth Congressional District and nearby in what is known as the “Old Fifth,” before re-districting of congressional districts.

Those outside the area are booming, suburban counties of Boone, Kenton and Campbell in northern Kentucky, Butler, Edmonson and Monroe counties in southern Kentucky and a couple of larger counties like Warren and Hardin.

Republicans traditionally go with the favorite in their party. But a recent SurveyUSA poll suggests that may not be the case in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Self-described outsider Rand Paul showed a surprising 3-point lead over Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who previously was viewed by many in the party as the most electable candidate.

“We’re pleased but not surprised,” said Paul’s campaign manger David Adams. “Whether it’s missteps by other candidates or just disgust with Washington, D.C. policies or just frustration, we’re just kind of riding the wave.”

That wave may be what’s different this time for Republicans.

“Republicans are mad at Republicans,” said state Rep. Jamie Comer, R-Tompkinsville, in Monroe County. “It’s a different atmosphere out there right now.”

Paul has been as critical of Republican congressional incumbents as he has of Democrats on federal spending, and Grayson – while criticizing bailouts and federal deficits in speeches – is viewed as the choice of the Republican establishment.

There’s a twist to the SurveyUSA poll, however. While Paul leads Grayson among Republican primary voters, Grayson does better in the fall against prospective Democrats Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. That’s puzzling because the results are from the same survey, meaning at least some self-identified Republicans who favored Paul in the primary presumably supported someone else in the fall.

Grayson’s campaign manager, Nate Hodson, said that shows Grayson is the best choice for the party.

“Poll numbers bound around, but the one thing these polls have consistently shown is that Trey Grayson is the strongest candidate to hold Jim Bunning’s seat in conservative hands next November,” Hodson said. “Election day is the only poll that matters, and that’s the one we’re working toward.”

That doesn’t concern Adams – at least for now.

“We’re going to run one election at a time,” he said.

Paul has used a network of small donors through the Internet – much as his father, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, used in his unsuccessful run for president – to raise more than $1 million, which can buy a lot of name recognition.

Rep. C.B. Embry, R-Morgantown, said Paul has “more visible support” in Butler County, noting Paul lives only 18 to 20 miles away in Warren County. But Embry said Paul appears to be making more appearances and working hard to build support.

“Of course he’s not serving in office,” Embry said, in contrast to Grayson. “So he has more time to do it.”

Sen. Vernie McGaha, R-Somerset, represents one of the most conservative districts in the state. He didn’t express a preference between Grayson and Paul but when asked, he said, “I think Rand Paul may do quite well around home.”

Sen. Tom Jensen, R-London, lives in and represents the most reliably Republican county in the state – Laurel County.

“I think the political figures around here are for Trey," Jensen said. “But probably the anti-government crowd may be with Paul. I have not seen the number of people for Trey drop off. I think the feeling is Trey has won two statewide races and he makes an excellent statewide candidate.”

Sen. David Givens, R-Greensburg, said Paul has attracted interest and attention from Republican constituent groups Givens hadn’t expected.

“The talk I’m hearing is that he’s being looked at,” Givens said. “Now whether he can retain that interest among voters is another question.”

On that score, Adams said Paul is gaining credibility with Kentucky voters as they come to know him better, while Hodson countered that Grayson fits the more traditional Republican mold, rather than the libertarian streak Paul appeals to.

“We believe Trey Grayson’s views on the issues will be a better fit with the Republican primary electorate next May,” he said.

For the present, however, the polling shows Paul is making an impact.

RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.